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Much of the Patriots playoff chances will rely on Saturday night’s game versus the Cowboys and the Ravens.  Both teams sit at 9-5, and are playing for their playoff lives.

However, for Patriots fans, this game has a lot of importance.  Currently, the Ravens hold the edge in conference record, and would beat the Patriots out in any tiebreaking scenarios, as both teams are tied at 9-5.  That means if both teams won out, and the Patriots didn’t win the division, the Ravens would advance to the playoffs as the #6 seed.

However, that could all change if the Cowboys were to beat the Ravens tonight.  The Ravens would fall to 9-6.  Since the Jets and Dolphins play in the final week of the season, the best one of them could finish is 10-6, so the Patriots would control their own fate.  Division race aside, the Patriots could win out and claim the #6 spot.

All of this seems nice and dandy, but if the Ravens win tonight’s game, things get really complacated.  At 10-5, the Ravens would beat us out in any tiebreakers, and they would have to lose week 17 against the 5-10 Jaguars for the Patriots to have a chance at getting the wildcard.  If the Ravens also win, we would really need either the Jets or Dolphins to lose to one of their 2-12 opponents to have a realistic shot at the playoffs.  Both teams are on the road.

So things are clearly very complicated.  And if the Pats want a clear path to the playoffs, they just have to hope the ‘boys can beat out the Ravens.

In terms of playoff scenarios, week 12?s game is absolutely critical for the Patriots to make the playoffs.  A loss would drop the Patriots to 6-5, and they would be sitting alone at third place in the AFC East (or possibly tied for last). In essence, this is a playoff game.

Sunday?s game certainly won?t be an easy one, either.  The Pats are coming off a 38-13 week three loss to the Dolphins, as well as a loss last week, and the Dolphins, at 6-4, are riding a little three game win streak of their own.

Keys to the Game

1. Contain the Wildcat - Last time the Patriots played the Dolphins, the Fins not only introduced, but perfectly executed the Wildcat formation, a formation where they line up Chad Pennington on the outside, leave Ronnie Brown behind center to take the direct snap, put Ricky Williams as the left wing-back (where he can make plays in motion), and stack the tight end to the right side.  This play works to perfection due to the mismatches the can cause in the box.  However, people are making too big a deal of this.  The Dolphins only run it about 5% of the time, and the Patriots have had months to prepare for it.  Still, the Dolphins do have the confidence to run this formation, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

2. Keep the Pass Rush Going - Chad Pennington is not the best at avoiding the rush, so if the Patriots can get a steady pass rush from Mike Vrabel and Pierre Woods, they may be able to stop the pass.  Keep in mind, the Patriots didn?t exhibit much of a rush in week three, and it cost them.  Chad Pennington was able to pick the Pats secondary apart with intermediate and crossing routes.

3. Don?t Become One Dimesional - While it was nice to see the Patriots could fall back on Matt Cassel, the Patriots still need to set up the pass with the run. With Lamont Jordan likely out again, Sammy Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will once again be called upon to carry the load of the rushing attack. If they can set the tempo for the game, then the Pats can open up the playbook.

Players to Watch - Dolphins

1. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, #19 - Ginn has been coming on strong as of late, and is becoming the Dolphins biggest threat in the passing game.  He is showcasing improving hands, excellent route running, as well as great after the catch ability.

2. Anthony Fasano, TE, #80 - After a quick start, he hasn?t been part of much of the offense lately, and looks to get back on track this week.

3. Vernon Carey, RT, #72 - Carey is one of the most durable members of the Dolphins offensive line, and has been very key in the Fins? successful rushing attack this year.  Will go against Ty Warren.

4. Channing Chrowder, ILB, #52 - Chrowder has really helped the Dolphins make the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 team, and has 75 stops on the year already.  Future Patriot?  God I hope so (he will be a free agent).

5. Joey Porter, OLB, #55 - Unfortunately, it?s hard to write a Dolphins preview without mentioning Porter.  In week three, he had four sacks against us.  He has recorded at least a half sack in all but one game this season.  Matt Light will have to elevate his game if he?s gonna stop Porter.

Players to Watch - Patriots

1. Matt Cassel, QB, #16 - Cassel will be looking to build upon his best pro game against the Jets.  However, for Cassel, he just needs to win the Pats the game.

2. Sammy Morris, RB, #34 - Morris will be looking to make a big impact this week against his former team.  He hasn?t been listed on the injury report all week.

3. Jason Webster, CB, #23 - The Patriots will look for Webster to provide a spark for the Patriots over the slot.  With Terrence Wheatley out for the season and Jonathan Wilhite banged up, Webster will get a continued look.

4. Mike Vrabel, OLB, #50 - Vrabel had a great game last week against the Jets, he was getting a significant rush all night.  While you may not have noticed it, he really is back, and he will be looking to finally record another sack this week against the Dolphins.

5. Ben Watson, TE, #84 - Watson had one of the most up and down games I?ve ever seen against the Jets.  He had a couple of nice plays, dropped a pass, and forced his own fumble (wow).  However, his stats did look nice, and it will be interesting to see if he gets continued looks from Cassel,

Greg?s Prediction: Patriots 27 Dolphins 21

I think that the Patriots will barely edge this one out.  It will be close all day, and I think the Pats will move the ball well.  This is a must win game, and the Patriots had the entire weekend off and should be rested and prepared, so I?m thinking this one tilts in the Patriots? favor.

n news that will completly change the scope of things on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like linebacker Adalius Thomas is done for the season with a broken left forearm.  ESPN.com?s Michael Smith reports:

New England?s win over Buffalo Sunday came with a significant loss.

Linebacker Adalius Thomas, who has started all nine games for the Patriots and is tied for the team lead with five sacks, suffered a broken left forearm in the first half of the Patriots 20-10 win, according to sources. The sources believe the injury is likely season ending.

?It?s not good. He?s probably done [for the season],? said one source.

This is probably the worst possible injuries the Patriots could suffer on defense (Vince Wilfork being the other), and the best we can hope is that Thomas will not be out for the whole year, and will be able to return for a playoff run.  In the mean time, however, Thomas is out, and his loss will change the scope of the Patriots? defense.

He has played the most snaps of any Patriots defender this season, as plays in all packages and sub-packages (as in coverage and base defenses).  With Thomas out, Pierre Woods will likely slide into the starting position.  Look for rookie Vince Redd to be promoted from the practice squad.  It?s a shame that Shawn Crable is out for the year, because this would be the perfect opportunity for him to take over Thomas? role in many of his pass rushing and coverage responsibilities.

The Patriots may also look externally.  There are two names I can immediately think of.  Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau.  While re-signing Colvin had never really made sense, it does make perfect sense now.  Colvin, if healthy, is a great pass rusher, and can also play in the nickel and dime sub-packages.  Junior Seau might also be an option.  While I don?t see him as an outside linebacker anymore, he could move back inside, and Gary Guyton or Jerod Mayo, who both played multiple linebacker positions in college, could get some time on the outside.

With the loss of Adalius Thomas, it?s not really a question of what you can do to replace him, because you really can?t.  The real question is, what can you do to best match some of the things he does, as in who can try to take over some of his pass rush and coverage responsibilities.